Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
